My priorities:
- Starting Pitching with upside
- Bullpen help with experience and a potential closer
- A starting middle infielder
- Shoring up the catching
Non-tendering:
Keynan Middleton at $900M, Hansel Robles at $3.9MM and Justin Anderson at $700M. That frees up an additional $5.5MM beyond the $26MM I had to work with. That gives me $31.5 to work with in AAV.
Starting Pitching:
I want one guy who can deliver innings, and one guy who can provide upside (ala Dylan Bundy). I know I am not going to get the real high priced guy in Bauer, so I need a couple of 10 win guys if possible.
- Chris Archer- I know he had a down year, but he also had some really good years working for a manager named Joe Madden. Archer is coming off of Thoracic Outlet Syndrome surgery and as such has injury risk. I think he will want multiple years at a lower AAV so I am going to offer 2 years at $8MM. I may not get a $4MM value in year one, but I should get more than that in year two. He is my upside/bounceback guy because he has done it very well in the past under Joe.
- J.A. Happ- he got the short end of the stick with the Yankees throttling him this past year so they wouldn’t have to pick up the option year. He isn’t worth $10MM but his numbers add up to a solid 3 or 4 starter. I offer him $6MM for a year, with reachable incentives that give him a player option for the 2nd year at an additional $6MM. This guy is steady and will give me 150-160 innings even though he is getting a bit older.
Bullpen:
Major League Baseball is no longer a Starting Pitcher’s game. The bullpen needs to be strong, and we are not. There are always failures, so I am looking at volume from proven guys to make up for it. I expect two of these to do well, and one to be wasted money (like we usually end up with).
- Get the big dog closer by spending $7.5MM for Brad Hand. This is the most consistent and proven closer available in my mind. He has done nothing but good things since he got his opportunity. If he wants a second year I again give him the opportunity to have a player option for a second year at the same price if he gets 25 saves. He probably turns the second year down if he does, but 25 saves would come in handy for us in the meantime. Big contracts for relief pitchers and going to be few and far between this winter, but he is worth this amount.
- Darren O’Day- I didn’t understand why they let him go the first time but this guy has proven himself year after year. Give him $2.5MM, which won’t be much of a pay cut from last year compared to what a lot of free agents are going to be facing. Perry knows him so he should have a relationship established. I have always liked having the alternative delivery like Joe Smith and O’Day provided for us in the past.
- Greg Holland/Mark Melancon- whoever agrees to come on board first $4MM gets this money. I would offer 2 years to Holland at this amount, but only one year to Melancon. Holland and Melancon have both been closers in the past, but I would rather trust that role to Hand.
Middle Infield:
I get that there are a lot of middle infielders available so the prices should be down, but I want a guy that I know can be a starter. I would really prefer to have Simba back, but MLBTR has his expected price being too high so it is time to move on. One guy that we have coveted in the past is Cesar Hernandez. He is only going to be league average in practically every way, but that is better than what I think we have in Luis Rengifo or Franklin Barreto. One of them can continue as our utility infielder, but I would not want them to be even a 60% starter. Hernandez is declining in value as he gets a little older and he loses a bit of value by not stealing the bases he used to get, so he is going to have a tough time landing a really nice contract. I offer him $4MM for a year. My backup plan is Jonathan Schoop, but I don’t like his defense.
Catching:
This is where I veer off the Free Agent wagon. I think we need to make a trade to land Austin Hedges from the Indians. I think we have Max Stassi as an offensive minded catcher now and would like to pair him with a defense first catcher. Hedges is not going to hit, but if he can help our pitching with his superior defense I am willing to make that sacrifice, especially if I can use Stassi when I do need that offense. He is supposedly a potential non-tender candidate so he should be available. If he is non-tendered I would offer him $5MM for 2 years. Otherwise we have to pick up his contract at $3Mm which is still within my budget by sending them someone like Trent Deveaux. Anthony Benboom can be my third wheel as there is always somebody hurting when playing his position. No, I don’t want Jeff Mathis back and I do realize Hedges has about the same offensive firepower.
Summary:
I have a few bucks left over in case I need to up one of these offers by $500M, but I think we are looking at a buyer’s market this offseason. I got two starting pitchers for the next year or two, but I get Albert’s money in my budget next year so I can go hard then. There isn’t enough value in this year’s market to go too heavy to get an Tanaka/Odorizzi or another $15MM a year potential flop. I am OK with Heaney, Bundy, Canning plus my two and the fringe guys that we already have. I don’t want to give up either Marsh or Adell to land a “potential” pitcher so I have to wait that one out. I need one of them to show me that I don’t need the other. I am looking for upgrades around the edges, not any big splashes so I need Upton and whoever (Adell, Marsh, Ward) lands in RF to produce but offense isn’t the problem. If Shohei has arm trouble again next year I start looking to prepare him to play some OF or 1B so I can make the DH position available to others in the future.
Thanks for the feedback. I still want to take that flyer on Archer. I am just not in love with any of the FA Starting Pitchers.
No reaction to the Shohei plan? I thought that would start a discussion…
Like the Shohei plan. He played OF in Japan and Upton’s contract is up soon. I’d get him on the grass.
Maybe down the line, but I really want to see if that arm holds up. We need that more than an OF, so giving him time to figure that out is in our benefit.
I’m warming to Happ as the second tier addition since I looked into his numbers a bit. Short term deal, cheap-ish.
I want no part of Archer right now. We have to aim higher there in both performance and durability.
O’day and Melancon…where have I seen that combo before? Ha ha.
In short, I like all but the Archer part.
Yah, Happ is the chicken of FA pitchers. He’s not exotic and risky, like Paxton, who could be delicious or taste like ass. Nor is he a fine aged steak that you know will taste great like…. no one on the FA market this year…. Garrit Cole? Happ is chicken, when you ask what’s for dinner and mom says chicken you don’t jump for joy, but you know it will probably taste ok. Nothin wrong with a little chicken…. accept chicken only improves the team, it doesn’t win huge donkey dick championships before Trout hit’s old age at 33. If that’s a worry you need Happ and then you need to trade for Snell or something.
Exactly. We need a guy like that but we need more. I’d trust Happ and this bullpen to win more often than not. But still.
Trade Adell for Manning/Plesac, get Happ and this bullpen, and you have a real deal pitching staff.
After trying rehab lotto tickets in Harvey (who was TOS) and Linsecum (who wasn’t, but still had issues which sapped his talents), I don’t want to have any emphasis on a pitcher who *may* turn out to be what we need. I am suspicious of Tanaka, whose UCL is just itching to blow up in Angels red.
Archer? Well, maybe the Angels get lucky and a bounce back but relying on luck…
I don’t often hear success stories after thoracic outlet surgery and the Matt Harvey deal still stings.
We do need to take chances, though, if we are to get multiple pitchers on this budget.
Well, there was a study in 2017 that found 10 of 13 MLB pitchers returned to equal or better performances post-surgery, in a sustained time. We tend to hear the stories that went wrong, and less about success stories (problems with a media chasing sensational stories, in general).
Great analysis here:
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/phil-hughes-and-the-sobering-history-of-thoracic-outlet-injuries/
The tl;dr on this is the best outcomes were on younger pitchers with lighter workloads.
That doesn’t bode well for Archer.
Very interesting take. I am a bit meh on the starting pitching and see things potentially unraveling quickly with injuries. I like your bullpen suggestions.
I will say that considering Stassi an offense-minded catcher raised some question marks for me. Stassi (other than the shortened 2020 season) has always been a defense-minded catcher with almost no real offense. So, I think it’s a mistake to rely on his offense in 2021.
I think the team should be looking for a catcher with a consistent offense track record and then appreciate whatever offense is generated by Stassi.
I think we are all pretty much still trying to figure out who Stassi is.
Well, we agree we need some catching help. Choosing to read Stassi as defensive oriented, and going ofter the ‘Napoli’ of the bunch has its own risks (all offense, poor catching D). I think I would lean as the author here does, and choose the defensive catcher. If Stassi ‘returns’ to that role too, well then we have at least a strong C defense and poor-hitting from the position, which is generally par for the course. This with the upside of Stassi’s 2020. Is that the wrong way to go? Do we need more pop from C?
Please Gah juss don sign Yadi Molina. I want nothing to do with his fare well tour, his bromance with Albert, etc. Just say no to Yadi.
I would be stunned if he doesn’t retire as a Cardinal.
Yeah that raised my eyebrow too. We got Stassi for his defense. I’m still considering his decent hitting in a shortened season a fluke. I’d love to be wrong though.