The Jace alternative that has caught my eye for the past several weeks is Oregon’s Mason Neville. In March, he was viewed as more of a Day Two guy – he didn’t make the MLB Pipeline top 100, and Baseball America saw him as more of a round 6-8 pick. But BA singled him out this week among seven college hitters that have significantly improved their draft stock this spring.
He’s got a lot of helium now – being the NCAA HR leader at a premium position (CF) will do that – and he might be a top 50 pick come summer. He’s my top 2nd round target now, and might not even be available then – the Angels might need a CBA trade to fetch him.
Major YoY improvement in K rate (has got in under 20% now), performing against competition, wRC+ of 171 (Jace is currently 144), and in-zone contact rates superior to Jace.
Jace getting hotter as the competition in the SEC gets going.
I think he will be a streaky guy in MLB. He has the power and strikeout profiles for it. When he’s hot, fans will love him. But when he hits a cold streak it will suck. Hopefully some walks make up for it, but probably not.
At the end of the year, he’ll have good numbers. But they’ll be put up in a Jekyll and Hyde situation.
Jekyll and Hyde players who are often all or nothing hitters shouldn’t go first to r second in a draft. Those types are meant for later picks. Maybe 10-15.
Just keep thinking Josh Hamilton when I think Jace. Not saying he has those makeup deficiencies, but it’s not great that he came into his draft year comparatively out of shape and is turning on the jets midway.
His recent swing metrics are improved, but even the tweet above indicate more very good than top-of-the-scale contact, EV and sweet spot #s. He’s hitting himself back into the top ten, but there’s still a lot of risk in his profile.
We need a starting pitcher or power hitting corner infielder that can sign his contract without minor league coaching.
There are several third basemen who could be there at 47 but would almost certainly be there if we landed a competitive balance pick. Andrew Fischer of Tennessee would be such a godsend in that range.
Though I doubt Fischer is a third baseman. Most scouts are convinced he’s 1B-only, and Tennessee seems convinced of the same. They gave him a few looks at third after the transfer, and he’s since been their first baseman all season. He has the arm for third, but not really the hands or range.
I like Fischer, but that positional limitation makes him less attractive in an organization loaded up with lefty 1b like Noda, Nicholson, Kavadas and Schanuel. Save for Nolan, those are all power-over-hit types like Fischer as well.
Great to dream on our own Nick Kurtz lite though.
NCAA Top Prospects week #10
There has been a lot of movement in the top 25 recently. Texas takes the number 1 spot, Tennessee moves down to number 6, and Clemson moves up to number 2. I’m not sure if this is surprising to just me or everyone, but UC Irvine is ranked 12th in the country. Coming off a good year last year, they’re looking to make a push come summertime.
Jace stays hot this weekend and is making his case for being a top 3 pick again. He has regained his draft stock after not having too hot of a start. I’m happy to see Jace succeed. Here are his stats from the weekend: Fri: 0-4 3Ks, Sat: 2-5, 2 RBI, Sun: 2-3 3 RBI, 2 BB. Jace has his average up to .315 along with 15 home runs. Impressive to say the least
Liam Doyle had yet another outing that doesn’t surprise me at all. 7IP, 4 hits, 2 runs, a walk, and 9 Ks. He continues to impress me every week, and I still have no idea how I didn’t know who he was before the season started. I love watching him pitch. He is electric on the bump and has an attitude that makes him stand out.
Unfortunately, the series between Florida State and Virginia was postponed, so Jamie Arnold didn’t get a start last week.
UC Santa Barbara had 2 good outings from their staff this weekend. One being from Tyler Bremner, he had dealt all year long. As of now, in my eyes, there is no clear favorite for the first pitcher off the board. It could go any way, but let’s focus on Bremner for now. His outing this past week: 7IP, 6 hits, 3 runs, 1 walk, and 13 Ks. He has continued to keep his walk numbers low and the strikeout numbers up. I’m excited to see who takes him come draft time.
Now moving on to what I believe has been one of the most impressive outings I’ve seen this year. Jackson Flora went 9 IP, gave up 1 hit, allowed 1 walk, and had 9 strikeouts, throwing 126 pitches. Absolute domination on the mound from Flora. He very well may be a top pick in next years draft.
Stay tuned for weekly updates on the best players in College!